To my mind, the radically unexpected popularity of SMS is one of the more thought-provoking (new) media developments. The graph above (based on stats from the National IT and Telecom Agency) shows continuous SMS growth and no signs of the development slowing down (2006 is an estimate).
Futurology can be silly, but prediction is a component of (some) solid science. So here’s a question: When will this growth end, either because the demand is saturated or because other technologies replace texting? My hunch: The growth won’t seriously slow down for the next three years.
What do you think?
Tags: mobile, technology
4 comments
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October 22nd, 2006 at 3:14 pm
Jonas
I agree with you, and would probably say it won’t slow down for the next ten years, but I am a heavyweight optimist (: The segment of the population not using it, is getting smaller, and as long as teenyboppers use it as their main channel of communication, I don’t see any reason for it to slow down.
October 24th, 2006 at 10:01 pm
Paulin
SMS is slow and the typing interface is awkward. It is definitely a technological mishap doomed to disappear when speech recognition takes over. So, we will probably have to live with it for another 10 to 15 years….
Meanwhile we will see full-word typing and advanced prediction systems that may speed up communication towards the speed of touch typing on qwerty keyboards (say 40 - 60 words per minute).
And my wild-card: Gaze typing on glass mounted displays. And may last wild-card: gaze interactive real-time corrections of faulty speech recognition … cold happen in just five years.
October 27th, 2006 at 8:58 am
Jonas
OK, a little more specific this time: The growth will end in three years, an actual decrease will begin in five. Give or take
@Paulin:
“SMS is slow and the typing interface is awkward. It is definitely a technological mishap doomed to disappear when speech recognition takes over.”
I don’t disagree. But SMS is still “good” for meetings/lectures where speech is not accepted (as well as for situations where you don’t want those around you to listen in). Not a tiny percentage of all traffic, I think.
November 8th, 2006 at 11:07 am
Morten Bach
I am this week finishing a paper with the modest title “What’s the next online communication activity to watch out for?” (or something like that) - Abstract below - When mobile messaging (SMS or what ever) really takes of as an commercial application the numbers in you chart will look ridiculous low. We only seen the beginning of the PLC shaped adoption curve!
“As the field of Online Marketing Communications (OMC) matures, the importance of some tools deteriorates while others become more important. To foresee changes in this respect, a survey among a sample of Danish companies (n=273) and advertising agencies (n=129) was carried out. At present, companies find search engine advertising, online PR and e-mail direct marketing to be most important in OMC while a discrepancy between importance in present OMC and demand at agencies indicate that especially SMS/MMS marketing but also online sponsorships, and online sales promotion will become more important. Research in related fields corroborate that especially SMS/MMS will grow in importance.”